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Tuesday, May 03, 2005

Marring the calendar

Steve Scolnik @ 3:30 PM

 
Currently

The weather has made a one-letter change to the calendar today: It's a fine "Mar." day here in the Nation's Capital area on the 3rd of "May". Temperatures are barely reaching 60 at mid afternoon in most locations under partly cloudy skies. The low of 38 early this morning was only 2 degrees above the record set in 1909. BWI tied their record of 34 from 1986. Dulles also tied a record at 32. There was frost or even a freeze in some rural areas; Frank in Harrisonburg reported a low of 29 there and 25 degrees in Rockingham County. The 4 Winds network station in my neighborhood reported 33.4 at 2 minutes before 6am. How cold did you get? The scattered precipitation of yesterday is gone, and the radar is clear for hundreds of miles in all directions.

Outlook

Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures should drop to the low 40's in the immediate area tonight, with some frost possible in the outlying valleys. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with temperatures warming a bit to the low or mid 60's.

Climate Clues Continued

On Friday we noted a new research paper dealing with the global heat balance. Today, one of the authors of that paper has a post in the RealClimate blog discussing some of the main issues. His conclusions are:
- The fact that surface air temperatures and ocean heat content are both rising implies that the temperature changes are not due to changes within the climate system itself.
- The results reduce the likelihood that observed temperature trends are the result of biases in the observations, such as urban heat effects.
- The lag effect between ocean warming and air temperature implies "further warming of around 0.5-0.7 C, regardless of future emission increases."

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