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Tuesday, June 14, 2005

The Heat Goes On

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM

Forecast

Today will likely be the hottest of the year with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s on westerly winds with a chance of some isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Due to the combination of heat and humidity, the National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for the entire Metro area. Wednesday looks to be a slightly cooler repeat of today before we see a substantial cool down on Thursday. In fact, overnight Wednesday looks like the first time our temperature will dip below 70 degrees since last Tuesday morning, June 7th. Stay tuned for how long this cool down will last.

Image Above Shows Heat Advisory for DC Metro, Courtesy of the National Weather Service

Photo Essay: Yesterday evening storm, rainbow and sunset on the Mall

By CapitalWeather.com Photographer Kevin Ambrose

Does July remember June?

Although we are currently running over 2 degrees above normal for June, there is still enough time left in the month as well as uncertainty such that we do not know how it will finish with respect to average. Nevertheless, it is interesting to note whether June temperatures have any correlation to how July will turn out. Although thirty years is a modest sample size, there is some evidence that June may give us a peek at July. Of the last 30 Junes, twenty finished above normal and ten below normal. For the years' where June was below normal(normal is 74.5 degrees), the average temperature gives little insight into the next month as half of the following July's finished above normal and half below. However, of the twenty Junes that finished above normal, thirteen of the following July's finished above normal versus just seven below normal. This suggests that there is at least a moderate correlation between a warm June and the following July being warm as well.

1995 Chicago Heat Wave

There is some indication that as we cool down in the East, a strong high pressure or heat dome will set up in the upper Midwest and lead to much above average temperatures in areas such as Chicago that are used to very temperate and comfortable summers. While there are no current suggestions of a repeat, it is interesting to look back 10 years to 1995 when the Chicago experienced a very dangerous and unexpected heat wave. During the 7 day heat wave from July 11th to 17th, the temperature failed to dip below 73 degrees at night and hit 89 or higher each day. The core of the heat was centered from the 12th through the 15th with high temperatures of 98, 106, 102 and 99 respectively. The 106 degrees on the 13th was the warmest July day on record at Midway airport. The heat wave had dire consequences for a city where many do not have air conditioning as 739 people died from heat related factors. Let's hope we do not see a repeat, or that at least it is well forecast.

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