* Kennedy Inauguration Weather | Later: InaugurationCast and Snow Poems *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Morning rain tapers to scattered p.m. showers. Low 40s. | Tonight: Partly cloudy and breezy. Low 30s. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny and breezy. Near 40. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Another storm and another goose egg in the snow column. Today's raw rain might even have snow haters wishing for a few flakes. Alas, I don't see any of the white stuff over the next several days. But hey, if the Wizards can beat the Cavs on something as improbable as a LeBron James traveling call, then surely snow lovers will eventually catch their break, too.

Today (Wednesday): Rain will likely be heavy at times through the morning, then tapering to scattered showers in the afternoon. Overcast skies will limit highs to the low 40s with light winds. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Becoming partly cloudy and breezy as winds from the west dry us out and overnight lows dip to the low 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Ice threat wanes overnight, rain continues heavy at times

Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 9 a.m. tomorrow N&W of D.C. (includes Loudoun, Montgomery, Howard and Fauquier counties and points N&W)

Cold and wet conditions have predominated today, with some icing noted north and west of D.C. By and large, this has been a rain event for most people. Those out near Ashburn, Leesburg, Gaithersburg, and Germantown as well as points north or west have been hovering at or below freezing most of the day which has allowed for light ice accretion on elevated objects and even some slick spots on roadways.

As we head toward and past sunset, additional precipitation will enter the area and some locations north and west could see ice form more easily on roadways before temperatures begin rising tonight. Use extra caution over the next several hours if driving north and west of D.C.

Tonight: If you are not seeing icing this evening, do not expect it overnight. And even if you are seeing icing, it should come to an end as temperatures warm above freezing in most if not all area locations. Rain may be heavy at times overnight, with .50"-1.00"+ possible across the area. Morning lows will range from the mid-to-upper 30s.

Tomorrow: Rain will be a pretty good bet Wednesday morning before we trend toward scattered showers during the afternoon. Temperatures will rise higher than today with readings topping out in the low-to-mid 40s across the area. Clouds should persist into the evening as a sometimes gusty west wind kicks into gear behind a cold front.

See Matt Roger's forecast through the weekend.

Late-day travel could be tricky for far north & west burbs

Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 9 a.m. tomorrow N&W of D.C. (includes Loudoun, Montgomery, Howard and Fauquier counties and points N&W)

Right Now: The morning has come and gone with few problems in the immediate metro area, as expected. Precipitation has been spotty and intermittent, and locally has been mostly in the form of plain rain, with temperatures mainly between 32-34 degrees. The far north and west suburbs (Loudoun, Frederick and Fauquier counties) have seen patchy sleet and freezing rain, with temperatures right at or just below freezing.

This Afternoon & Tonight: The time and place to watch will be this afternoon/evening's commute home, primarily along and to the north and west of a line from Gaithersburg, Md. to Leesburg, Va., where the combination of some heavier precipitation (sleet and freezing rain), loss of daylight, and temperatures possibly sinking a degree or two could make for some tricky travel conditions.

That's not to say that some slick spots won't form in the closer-in north and west suburbs during the late afternoon and evening. But widespread icing is not expected for the immediate metro area, where plain rain may end up being the predominant precipitation type.

Overnight, temperatures rise a little, into the mid 30s, and precipitation turns to plain rain area-wide. In fact, quite a bit of rain could fall late tonight through midday tomorrow, before tapering in the afternoon.

See Matt Rogers' forecast for tomorrow through the weekend.

Most travel woes well north and west of city

Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 9 a.m. tomorrow N&W of D.C. (includes Montgomery, Loudoun, Howard counties and points N&W; advisory discontinued for Fairfax and Prince William County)

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Wintry mix and/or rain. 31-35. | Tonight: Mix to rain. 31-35. | Tomorrow: Morning Rain. 41-45. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A classic clash of air masses is creating a complicated weather picture for the D.C. area today. Cold air that filtered southward overnight will interact with warmer air and precipitation from our south today. North and west of town, occasional sleet and freezing rain will develop and gradually increase in intensity as the day wears on. Inside the Beltway and to the south and east, sleet will probably turn to plain rain, but temperatures will be close enough to freezing that some icing cannot be entirely ruled out.

Today (Tuesday): In the normally colder north and west suburbs, morning sleet will probably change to freezing rain by midday. Temperatures should generally hover near freezing. There may be some lulls in the precipitation and it is forecast to be heaviest in the late afternoon toward evening. Although the ground is not very cold, watch out for slick spots especially late in the afternoon with the loss of daylight. As usual, bridges, ramps, overpasses, and untreated sidewalks will be the main trouble spots.

Inside the Beltway and points south and east, it should be at or just above freezing through the day, reducing the threat of iciness and resulting in mainly a cold rain. However, some sleet may mix in with the rain during the first half of the day and temperatures will be close enough to freezing for the evening rush hour that the situation will bear watching. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tonight: Precipitation continues overnight. Areas well north and west of the city may remain at or just below freezing so significant accumulations of ice are possible (stay tuned for updates through the day today) especially towards Frederick and Loudoun counties. In the immediate suburbs, city, and south and east mostly rain should fall, but temperatures will remain perilously close to freezing. Confidence: Low-Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend.

Winter Weather Advisory in effect 6 a.m. Tues through 9 a.m. Wed. N&W of D.C. (includes Fairfax, Montgomery and Howard counties and points N&W; excludes Arlington County, Falls Church and Alexandria)

* Wintry Mix Targets Area Tuesday: Full Forecast Through Weekend *

Tomorrow's winter weather event is a marginal one -- in that a couple degrees will make the difference between an icy mess and mainly cold rain. As usual, the further north and west you go, the better chance of the former. I don't think conditions will be bad enough for delays or closings in the immediate metro area in the morning.

In the outlying north and west counties (Loudoun and Frederick), there's a slight chance precipitation could start early enough (and that it will be cold enough) that school is delayed or even called off. More likely, these counties will see early dismissals, which could even extend into Fairfax and Montgomery Counties depending on temperatures midday tomorrow and how scared decision makers are. The prospect of ice does tend to strike fear in the hearts of school administrators...

SchoolCast:

For Loudoun and Frederick Counties and north and west:

Fairfax and Montgomery Counties:

Everywhere else:

Greatest ice threat is N&W of D.C. late in the day

Winter Weather Advisory in effect 6 a.m. Tues. through 9 a.m. Wed. N&W of D.C. (includes Fairfax, Montgomery and Howard counties and points N&W; excludes Arlington County, Falls Church and Alexandria)

* Inauguration Wx: The Case of Kennedy | InaugurationCast *

Following a brief period of morning sprinkles and light showers (mainly D.C. and east), today was mostly cloudy and quiet on the weather front. Highs that touched 50 in many spots will drop back through the 40s this evening as a wind from the north funnels colder air into the area.

Tonight: After a few evening breaks, clouds will increase again. A light wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, or just plain rain could be approaching western portions of the area after midnight, leading to a slight chance of precipitation before sunrise. Morning lows should be in the low-to-mid 30s.

Tomorrow Morning: Expect the chances of sleet, freezing rain and rain to increase through the day and last into the night. But precipitation may be too light and intermittent, and temperatures not quite cold enough, to cause many problems for the morning through midday period.

Tomorrow Afternoon and Night: With enough precipitation, roads could become significantly slick north and west of D.C. in the afternoon and into the night, when readings there could sink to just below freezing. In D.C. and to the south and east, roads should fare much better with temperatures likely to be at or just above freezing through the day and into the night.

Overnight and toward morning, temperatures should warm, allowing for frozen precipitation to change to plain rain from southeast to northwest.

See Jason Samenow's forecast through the weekend.

A soldier from U.S. Army Corps of Engineer's Inaugural Snow Removal Force prepares to move a car abandoned from the snowstorm on the eve of John F. Kennedy's inauguration in 1961. Image courtesy U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Inauguration Links

 

• Inauguration Central
• Weather Features
• Forecast Archive

 

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Today's InaugurationCast

Inauguration planners should pray there's no repeat of what transpired January 19, 1961 -- the eve of John F. Kennedy's inauguration. An unanticipated dumping of snow resulted in chaos in the metro area. As the National Weather Service describes:

8 inches of snow fell and caused the most crippling traffic jam (for its time). Hundreds of cars were marooned and thousands of cars were abandoned. The president-elect had to cancel dinner plans and, in a struggle to keep other commitments, is reported to have had only 4 hours of sleep. Former President Herbert Hoover was unable to fly into Washington National Airport due to the weather and he had to miss the swearing-in ceremony.

How did forecasters err? How did the storm develop? How effective was the response effort? Keep reading...

Seasonably cold conditions most of the week

Winter Storm Watch in effect Tues. afternoon through Wed. morning N&W of D.C. (includes Fairfax, Montgomery and Howard counties and points N&W; excludes Arlington County, Falls Church and Alexandria)

* InaugurationCast | Kennedy Inauguration Forecast Bust *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Variably cloudy. 45-50. | Tonight: Increasing clouds. 28-32. | Tomorrow: Wintry mix. 31-35. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Winter will try to assert itself this week, but not in a snow-lover friendly way. A significant storm will bring an unwelcome mix of ice and rain to the region tomorrow into Wednesday. Maybe the precipitation starts as a little snow. After the storm passes, cold air gradually re-establishes itself over the area but without a lot of precipitation.

Today (Monday): A cold front pushing through the region could (20% chance) generate a shower or two -- mainly in the morning. For the afternoon, expect variably cloudy skies. Temperatures will be pretty typical for the season, with highs in the mid- to upper 40s. Winds will blow from the northwest at 10-15 mph and may be gusty at times. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: As high pressure moves offshore, clouds move in with a 30% chance of sleet or light snow late at night. Little or no accumulation is expected and the precipitation may begin as rain. Lows will range from the upper 20s in the north and west suburbs to near freezing downtown. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the detailed forecast through the week.

Testing the limits of long-range predictions

Inauguration Links

 

• Inauguration Central
• Weather Features
• Forecast Archive

 

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Today's Local Forecast

Through January 13, CWG's chief and lead meteorologists -- Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman, respectively -- will provide dueling forecasts for Jan. 20, Inauguration Day. We'll also feature reader predictions. Starting Jan. 14, we'll shift to a single CWG team forecast, in hopes of more confidently honing in on the forecast details.

For three days running, Dan and I have stuck with our initial inauguration weather predictions. We've seen nothing to change our thinking about how weather patterns will evolve over the next couple of weeks. For those of you who have already read our predictions, we've added to our predictions a discussion about what we agree with and disagree with about each others' forecast.

So keep reading for these discussions and predictions, two new reader predictions (blasmaic and jtae55) and some inauguration weather history. And don't forget to comment with your own inauguration weather predictions.

Inauguration Links

 

• Inauguration Central
• Weather Features
• Forecast Archive

 

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Today's Local Forecast

Through January 13, CWG's chief and lead meteorologists -- Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman, respectively -- will provide dueling forecasts for Jan. 20, Inauguration Day. We'll also feature a reader prediction. Starting Jan. 14, we'll shift to a single CWG team forecast, in hopes of more confidently honing in on the forecast details.

For another day, Dan and I are standing firm with our initial inauguration weather predictions. Neither of us expect anything too extreme (on the hot or cold side), but both of us believe there's at least a slight chance of some precipitation. On the other hand, long-time Capital Weather Gang reader/commenter El Bombo (Bombo47jea) of DanceCast fame believes the region will get socked by a major storm. After a several month hiatus, he resumed posting on the blog yesterday.

Keep reading for Jason and Dan's initial predictions not to mention El Bombo's, and some inauguration weather history. And don't forget to comment with your own inauguration weather predictions.