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Late week strong storm chance

Moisture, instability, and lift may combine over our region late this week.

Orange shading over the D.C. region Thursday implies some chance for a few strong storms, but forecast confidence is low
A strong storm signal arrives by Thursday for our region, but stay tuned for changes this week.
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Moisture, instability, and lift may combine over our region late this week. The European weather modeling system and two other severe storm modeling systems are signaling chances for strong to severe storms starting Thursday.

Thursday's panels show storm potential from the CIPS model (above left) and Colorado State, or CSU (above right). Lower pressure may be draped across the region Thursday and especially Friday, allowing storm clouds to more easily bubble up.

Friday morning forecast position of fronts and key weather systems over the U.S.

Not to mention an approaching cold front getting closer on Friday, helping to provide lift. Here are the CIPS and CSU panels for Friday severe storm potential:

So far this doesn't look like a major, widespread outbreak but worth watching for a few strong to severe storms. Enough could change to shift confidence either way — this is still a lower-confidence outlook as the ingredients come into focus.

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A. Camden Walker

A. Camden Walker

Meteorologist and engagement lead, contributing to Capital Weather for over 20 years.

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