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Weather Service declares El Niño is here and predicts it will become historically strong

In the Mid-Atlantic, El Niños tend to boost winter precipitation.

Sea surface temperature differences from normal in the Pacific Ocean
Sea surface temperature differences from normal in the Pacific Ocean. The orange and red shades indicate warmer than normal conditions, indicative of a developing El Niño. (National Weather Service)

The National Weather Service announced El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and that the climate pattern may reach historically strong levels by the winter.

"There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," the Weather Service wrote in an advisory Thursday.

El Niños, defined by the warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, have ripple effects on weather patterns all over the world.

In the Mid-Atlantic, they tend to increase winter precipitation and, often, snowfall. However, particularly strong El Niños can pump so much mild air into the region that more rain falls than snow. The two strongest El Niños since 1950, in 1972-73 and 1997-98, produced historically low snow amounts in the DC area.

Jason Samenow

Jason Samenow

Chief meteorologist, journalist, and Capital Weather founder. AMS Certified Digital Meteorologist and DC-area native.

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