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Monday severe storm threat

Clusters or even a strong line of storms may turn severe sometime after 2 p.m. tomorrow.

Yellow shading over the entire region indicates a slight 2 out of 5 chance for severe storms later Monday
The National Weather Service has the DC area in a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms in our region tomorrow (Pivotal)
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The region may see a few clusters of thunderstorms tomorrow, with potential for a line or two of strong to severe storms. Note, too, an elevated chance for a few tornadoes:

A dark green shading in the map indicates a slight chance for tornadoes in the region Monday
A 2% chance of a tornado within a 25-mile radius of a point within the shaded green zone

Timing: Isolated morning shower; storms likely after 2 p.m. It‘s uncertain if they will continue into the evening. Stay tuned as we watch how many rounds of rain arrive tomorrow, and refine timing.

The animation shows possible radar reflectivity based on the North American Model from tomorrow morning into tomorrow night
One weather model's forecast radar from 8 a.m. Monday until 2 a.m. Tuesday

Primary threat: Damaging wind gusts over 57 mph possible.
Location: Entire region. Storms expected to generally move from west to east.

Yellow shading indicates a slight chance for damaging wind gusts over 57 mph in the region Monday

Other threats: A few flooding downpours (graphic below) are possible along with the the tornado threat (graphic near top).

Our severe storms expert, Jeffrey Halverson, notes:

We will have to contend with warm front passage in the morning, and we will see how far north it moves. 

He thinks "cloud cover, at least the first half of the day" is possible but "if we get into afternoon sun, then we destabilize."

Forecast confidence: Low-Medium. More detail coming from us tomorrow including where, if any, significant tornado threat might materialize.

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A. Camden Walker

A. Camden Walker

Meteorologist and engagement lead, contributing to Capital Weather for over 20 years.

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